By Marlene Boersch, Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc
July 2025
We received the June seeded acreage report from Statistics Canada (StatCan) on Friday morning. For both lentils and peas, the June seeded acreage numbers represent a significant change from their earlier estimates. Lentil acres were lifted by almost 5% (206,000 acres) from the March estimate, and pea acres were reduced by 0.4% (13,000 acres).
Peas
The June estimate for Canadian pea acres was published at 3.504 million acres, which represents a 9.1% increase over the 2024 pea acreage. We find this number surprisingly high given the combination of marketing problems with China, the uncertainty surrounding the Indian market for peas, the agronomic problems with peas over the past three years, and the recovery of canola prices into seeding.
Breaking pea acres down by province, shows some diverging developments. Manitoba pea acres dropped marginally (-0.7%). However, over the past ten years, Manitoba acres increased 2.7-fold. This undoubtedly is related to the opening of the Roquette pea processing facility in Portage La Prairie in 2020.
Saskatchewan pea acres increased by 2.2% over last year’s. Peak Saskatchewan pea acres occurred in 2019 at 2.33 million acres, but the ten-year development is a reduction of 7% to 1.77 million acres.
Alberta pea acres showed a huge 20.5% increase over 2024 acres to just under 1.5 million acres. Peak Alberta pea acres also occurred in 2019 at 1.8 million acres, and the ten-year development is a reduction of 1.1% to 1.5 million acres. Again, considering the developments in canola prices just before seeding, we think that Alberta pea acres might be overstated.
Acres by Province – Peas
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % of Last Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MB | 70,000 | 163,200 | 65,000 | 85,000 | 125,600 | 175,200 | 212,969 | 188,600 | 161,300 | 191,400 | 190,000 | 99.3% |
| SK | 2,135,000 | 2,160,000 | 2,165,000 | 1,935,300 | 2,334,900 | 2,321,700 | 2,106,552 | 1,808,600 | 1,597,200 | 1,735,600 | 1,773,000 | 102.2% |
| AB | 1,515,000 | 1,909,500 | 1,800,000 | 1,511,400 | 1,800,200 | 1,650,100 | 1,471,231 | 1,323,800 | 1,261,200 | 1,243,600 | 1,498,600 | 120.5% |
| Canada | 3,750,000 | 4,281,700 | 4,093,000 | 3,615,300 | 4,332,800 | 4,255,400 | 3,854,729 | 3,368,100 | 3,047,600 | 3,212,800 | 3,503,700 | 109.1% |
Historically, the 3.5 million acres seeded to peas in 2025 are still 19% below the 4.33 million acres seeded in 2019 and 2016, but during those years Canadian exporters could still count on being able to export to both China and India, and the Russian pea crop was much less of a factor in the export markets. Increased competition into China and into India/Pakistan/Bangladesh have taken a toll, especially on yellow peas. Green peas have been steadier because Russia’s competition is restricted to yellow peas.
Given a total pea acreage of 3.5 million tonnes, the acres seeded to green peas increased from roughly 11% in 2024 to 15% (514,000 acres) in 2025. Yellow pea acres fell from 84% in 2024 to around 78% in 2025 (2.75 million acres).
Acres by Class – Peas
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Total, 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | 481,700 | 420,600 | 285,309 | 357,820 | 513,773 | 15% |
| Yellow | 3,192,900 | 2,826,900 | 2,656,917 | 2,690,380 | 2,748,958 | 78% |
| Other | 184,552 | 120,600 | 105,374 | 160,135 | 240,969 | 7% |
| Total | 3,859,152 | 3,368,100 | 3,047,600 | 3,208,335 | 3,503,700 |
Applying the StatCan acres to the 2025 Canadian pea balance sheet gives some interesting results (pink columns). The higher acreage and a yield of 33.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac) (June number; Agriculture & AgriFood Canada (AAFC)) results in a 3.1 million tonne production. Supply adds to 3.57 million tonnes. Against a total use of only 2.3 million tonnes, this would leave the Canadian pea ending stocks at a very high 1.3 million tonnes, a 57% stock-use ratio. Mercantile uses a smaller acreage number (red columns), and we think we have a good chance of exporting around 2 million tonnes next crop year. The result of these assumptions is a 470,000 tonnes carry-out, an 18% stock-use ratio. Not ideal, but less burdensome than the StatCan/AAFC scenario.
We note that the yield outlook currently is quite good, so that Canada might well exceed the 33.4 bu/ac yield assumption.
Regarding global pea production, we currently estimate 13.6 million tonnes for the major producers, which would be 15% higher than last year’s 12.2 million tonnes. Much will depend on the size of the Russian crop. Should the Russian peas production come in significantly below the early estimates of 5 million tonnes, this would change the global pea supply outlook significantly.
Lentils
In their June report, StatCan pegged the Canadian lentil acreage at 4.38 million acres, 4% higher than the 2024 acreage. This makes sense as lentil prices performed well all of this ongoing crop year.
Breaking lentil acres down by province, shows that Saskatchewan still is by far the most significant province for lentil production with 87% of the acres in 2025. Alberta has the remining 13%, with just a sprinkling of acres in Manitoba. Saskatchewan’s acreage increased by 4.4% over last years to 3.8 million acres, while the mostly red lentil acreage in Alberta increased by just 1% to 565,000 acres.
Acres by Province – Lentils
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % of Last Year | % of Total Acres | 10-year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MB | 2,000 | 6,599 | 3,000 | |||||||||||
| SK | 3,750,000 | 5,105,000 | 3,920,000 | 3,345,800 | 3,387,700 | 3,807,200 | 3,751,087 | 3,767,200 | 3,199,700 | 3,646,900 | 3,808,600 | 104.4% | 87% | 102% |
| AB | 285,000 | 463,500 | 485,000 | 420,200 | 387,800 | 422,900 | 442,481 | 550,200 | 468,100 | 559,700 | 565,200 | 101.0% | 13% | 198% |
| Canada | 4,035,000 | 5,568,500 | 4,405,000 | 3,768,100 | 3,780,500 | 4,232,800 | 4,200,686 | 4,321,300 | 3,668,500 | 4,210,100 | 4,379,600 | 104.0% | 100% | 109% |
Like for peas, lentil acres are well below their peak acreage of 5.6 million acres, but the long-term up-trend still holds: 2015 Saskatchewan lentil acres are up 2% over the past ten years, while 2025 Alberta lentil acres are almost double those in 2015.
Driven by favourable prices, green lentil acres have been gaining on red lentil acres. Large green acres are up from 26% of total in 2024 to 33% of total in 2025. Similarly, small green at 16% of total are up by 5%. Meanwhile, the red lentil percentage of lentil acres has fallen from 61% in 2024 to 49% in 2025. The graph below shows the convergence of green and red lentil acres.
Acres by Class – Lentils
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Total, 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Green | 769,800 | 769,000 | 895,925 | 1,114,117 | 1,445,446 | 33% |
| Small Green | 294,600 | 292,500 | 375,218 | 457,153 | 691,991 | 16% |
| Red | 3,167,600 | 3,193,600 | 2,306,069 | 2,568,142 | 2,141,744 | 49% |
| Other | (31,314) | 63,200 | 91,228 | 70,688 | 100,419 | 2% |
| Total | 4,200,686 | 4,318,300 | 3,668,440 | 4,210,100 | 4,379,600 |
Applying the June StatCan acres to the 2025 Canadian lentil balance sheet shows that (barring a reduction in prospective yields) supply will remain relatively high. StatCan/AAFC expect production to reach 2.5 million tonnes, and supply 2.9 million tonnes. AAFC expects exports at 2.1 million tonnes for both 2024/25 and 2025/26. If correct, this would leave 2025/26 ending stocks at a manageable 475,000 tonnes. Besides the acreage, yields will still be highly influential on supply numbers, and the outlook is for above-normal yield potential.
On a global scale, we currently expect lentil production by the major producers at 6.4 million tonnes, up a moderate 2.7% from last year – watch yield results to refine these numbers.
Marlene Boersch is a managing partner in Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc. More information can be found at www.mercantileventure.com.