By G. Chandrashekhar
April 2026

India, the epicenter of the global pulse ecosystem, is currently in transition. From the 2025/26 season covering Kharif 2025 and Rabi 2026 harvests, the country is now looking forward to the 2026/27 season and the emerging picture is one of looming climate risk.  

A quick recap: India is the world’s largest producer, processor, importer, and consumer of a wide variety of pulses, and this is well known. Many countries cultivate pulses with India as the major target market.

Over the last four years, the country’s planted area for pulses has actually declined by about one million hectares to 27.7 million hectares.  

Production, too, is on a steady decline. From 27.3 million tonnes in 2021/22, harvest size is down to an estimated 26 million tonnes in 2025/26. Two pulses, namely gram/chana/chickpea (Rabi harvest) and pigeon pea/tur/arhar (Kharif harvest) together account for over 50% of the country’s total annual pulse output.

Production decline has driven India’s pulses imports higher. From 2.5 million tonnes in 2022/23, imports jumped to 4.7 million tonnes the following year and then on to a record 7.2 million tonnes in 2024/25. For 2025/26, total import is estimated slightly lower, yet still relatively high, at about 5.8 million tonnes.

2026/27 Outlook

This is the most crucial part. India faces the threat of El Niño during the Kharif season of June to September 2026. El Niño phenomenon typically results in lower quantum of rainfall and dry weather conditions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast “below normal” rainfall for the upcoming Kharif season, expected to be 92% of the long period average of 870 millimeters. By the end of May, IMD would provide region-wise rainfall outlook for June and September.

It is important to note, rather than the total quantum of rainfall at the end of the season, the spatial (geographical or region-wise) and temporal (month-wise) distribution of rains impact the crop prospects. The time of onset, progress, and withdrawal of rains will have a bearing on planted area as well as growers’ input management and agronomic practice.  

For the Kharif season, key pulse crops are pigeon pea (tur/arhar), black matpe (urad), and mung bean (green gram). The government has not yet announced the production targets for Kharif crops for 2026/27, even as the El Niño risk looms and the ongoing military conflict in the Persian Gulf region has pushed fertilizer prices higher.

To augment availability, ensure affordable prices for consumers and at the same time protect domestic growers’ interests, the government has announced a mix of trade and tariff policy intervention. Liberal or ”free” import of several pulses has been extended for one more year until March 2027.

While pigeon pea and black matpe import is completely unrestricted, yellow pea import is also unrestricted but subject to online registration (of contract) for import monitoring and a customs duty of 30% ad valorem. Lentil (masur) and chickpea (chana) both attract 10% duty each. However, imports from least developed countries will bear no duty.

On current reckoning and subject to harvest prospects in the wake of looming El Niño, India’s pulses import is likely to rebound in 2026/27 with a surge in pigeon pea, black matpe, and lentil import. Canadian green lentil is widely perceived as a good substitute to pigeon pea in traditional Indian food applications.

At the same time, if the effect of El Niño turns out to be severe and Kharif crop production prospects deteriorate, then a combination of decline in rural incomes, rising food inflation, and more expensive import due to weaker currency can potentially cause demand destruction. Managing the complex set of variables would be a key challenge for Indian policymakers. A clearer picture of Kharif planting prospects would emerge by early June when the southwest monsoon sets in.    

Pulses Self-sufficiency Mission

In October 2025, the Indian government launched a National Pulses Mission with the aim to move towards self-sufficiency over a six-year period by 2030/31 with a financial outlay of about $1.2 billion USD. Special focus would be on pigeon pea, black matpe, and lentil.

While the mission’s objectives are laudable and ambitious, several ground-level challenges may continue to stymie growth. Cultivation of pulses on marginal lands, low level of input usage, lack of irrigation, and no breakthrough in seed technology continue to affect pulses cultivation to result in low and unsteady yields. Land constraints, water shortage, and climate change exacerbate the situation. If anything, climate variability may worsen in the years ahead.

G. Chandrashekhar is an economist, senior journalist, and policy commentator specializing in global commodity markets. Views are personal. Reach him at gchandrashekhar@gmail.com