By Gaurav Jain, AgPulse Analytica
November 2025

Navigating Acreage Shifts, Yields, and Policy Uncertainties

As India’s agricultural calendar turns toward the Rabi season, with planting picking pace in the coming weeks, the outlook for key pulse crops—desi chickpeas and lentils — presents a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. Drawing from recent analyses by AgPulse Analytica, the 2026/27 marketing year (April-March) could see production gains in several crops due to favourable agronomic conditions like improved soil moisture. However, declining acreage in some areas, driven by competition from higher-return alternatives such as wheat and rapeseed, may temper overall supply. Government policies on imports, which are currently relaxed (albeit with a duty) until March 31, 2026, add a layer of uncertainty. Without extensions, India could face tighter domestic supplies, potentially forcing consumption cuts or renewed import allowances. Below, we delve into the projected balance sheets and implications for each major Rabi pulse.

Desi Chickpeas: Acreage Decline Offset by Yield Improvements

Desi chickpeas, a staple in Indian diets and a major Rabi crop, are expected to see further contraction in planted area amid shifting farmer preferences. The return-on-investment profile favours wheat and rapeseed, leading to a projected drop in acreage to 22.24 million acres from 23.475 million acres in 2025/26. Despite this, production is forecasted to rise modestly to 11 million tonnes, thanks to a higher yield of 18 bushels per acre (bu/ac)—bolstered by better soil moisture from recent monsoons.

The balance sheet underscores a potential squeeze if import relaxations end as scheduled. Imports are pegged at just 150 thousand tonnes, down sharply from 1.5 million tonnes in the prior year, assuming no policy extensions. Total supply would fall to 12 million tonnes, necessitating a reduction in domestic use to 11 million tonnes to maintain ending stocks around 964 thousand tonnes. Thin stocks held by the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) could prompt aggressive procurement from farmers, supporting incomes even if market prices remain below the minimum support price (MSP).

This scenario highlights the crop’s vulnerability to policy shifts. If imports remain restricted, prices could firm up, benefiting farmers but straining consumers.

Lentils: Stable Acreage with Production Upside

Lentils offer a brighter spot, with acreage holding steady at around 4.275 million acres. Improved yields of 15 bu/ac could push production to 1.78 million tonnes, up from 1.59 million tonnes in 2025/26, reducing reliance on imports. Carry-in stocks are expected to ease from high levels, particularly government holdings, as total supply dips slightly to 3.347 million tonnes.

Imports are projected at 950 thousand tonnes, a decline from 1.25 million tonnes, reflecting a potential policy tightening. Domestic use may rise to 2.9 million tonnes, supported by steady demand, while exports fall to 105 thousand tonnes. Ending stocks could halve to 342 thousand tonnes, signalling a more balanced market. However, there is a notable risk of restrictions—such as quantitative limits or additional duties—which could further curb inflows and stabilize local prices.

Farmers may benefit from procurement drives, aligning with broader goals to boost incomes and reduce import dependence.

Peas: Contraction and Import Dependency

Dry peas face headwinds, with acreage slipping to 1.9 million acres and yields improving to 21 bu/ac, yielding 1.1 million tonnes in production. The recent imposition of an import duty of 30% for shipments made from November 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026 is unlikely to slow down import pace. Instead, this can accelerate the pace, that the risk of duty is materialised.

Without an extension, total supply in midyear 2026/27 could plummet to 1.63 million tonnes, forcing domestic use down to 1.5 million tonnes, with ending stocks at 119 thousand tonnes. This underscores India’s ongoing need for imports to bridge gaps.

Combined Desi Chickpeas and Yellow Peas: A Supply Crunch Looms

Viewing desi chickpeas and yellow peas together reveals a stark picture. Production edges up to 12.123 million tonnes, but without extension of import policies, total supply drops to 13.693 million tonnes—a 20% decline from 2025/26. To preserve pipeline stocks, consumption may need to shrink by a similar margin to 12.5 million tonnes.

This imbalance challenges the adage that “big crops get bigger,” as global gluts contrast with India’s potential shortfalls.

Policy and Market Implications

The Indian government’s stance on imports post-March 2026 will be pivotal. Extending relaxations could stabilize supplies, but delays might lead to price spikes and renewed openings. Agronomic factors like weather will also play a role, potentially amplifying yields beyond forecasts. For farmers, higher MSP procurement could cushion income risks, while traders eye opportunities in a tighter market.

Overall, the 2026/27 Rabi season holds promise for yield-driven gains but risks from acreage losses and policy flux. Stakeholders should monitor government announcements closely, as India’s pulse sector navigates toward self-sufficiency amid global dynamics.

Gaurav Jain is the founder and chief analyst at AgPulse Analytica, based in New Delhi. He can be reached at gaurav@agpulse.net