By G. Chandrashekhar
August 2026
Halfway through the four-month (June to September) southwest monsoon cycle, cultivation of Kharif crops in general (rice, coarse cereals, oilseeds, cotton) and pulses in particular face an uncertain prospect in India.
Earlier, delayed onset of monsoon and stalled progress for over three weeks in June raised the risk of widespread drought. Thankfully, copious rainfall in July allayed much of the fear. India may have escaped drought, but the situation is far from comforting.
The India Meteorological Department had already flagged the risk of below-normal rains this year (only 90% of the 87 cm long-period average) in the wake of looming El Niño, a weather phenomenon that reduces precipitation and brings dry conditions.
As of July 27, while the country as a whole faces a 16% overall rainfall deficiency, parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh that are crucial for Kharif pulses cultivation (pigeon pea (tur/arhar), black matpe (urad) and mung) have recorded between 20% and 30% deficiency in precipitation. In other words, the temporal and spatial distribution of rains has been uneven so far.
No wonder, the latest weekly report on progress of area coverage shows that pulse planting continues to trail last year’s level. While the normal five-year average planted area for Kharif season is 12.4 million hectares, last year it was lower at 11.9 million hectares. This year, as of July 24, pulses are planted on 8.5 million hectares, well below the 9.1 million hectares this time last year.
There are still some way to go before reaching even last year’s final acreage number, but the planting window effectively closed by mid-July. Even assuming some delayed reporting of planting, on current reckoning the final acreage is unlikely to come close to even last year’s level, leave alone the five-year average.
The key factor to impact production would be the spatial distribution of rains in August. We do not know how it is going to pan out. So, it may be premature to hazard a guess about harvest prospects at this point of time.
The Government of India, Ministry of Agriculture has fixed Kharif 2026/27 pulses production target of 8.4 million tonnes that covers 4 million tonnes for pigeon pea, 1.5 million tonnes for black matpe, and 2 million tonnes for mung. The rest are minor pulses.
On current reckoning, it appears highly likely that production would fall well short of the target. A clear picture would crystallize by end-August. Last year Kharif, production was an estimated 7.6 tonnes.
In anticipation of the El Niño-triggered production shortfall and to ensure adequate availability for consumers, the government has allowed liberal import of pulses until March 2027.
Pigeon pea (tur/arhar) and black matpe (urad) import is completely free. Yellow pea attracts 30% duty and subject prior registration of import contract. Lentil attracts 11% duty. Desi chickpea import bears 10% duty and Kabuli 44%. All imports from LDCs (Least-Developed Countries) bear no duty at all.
A series of festivals from September to November usually drives food demand in general and pulses demand in particular manifold. This year will be no exception except that constrained growth in rural incomes and inflation expectations may dent demand growth.
Comparative Data of India’s Kharif Pulses Area and Production
| Pulse Crop | Area | Production | |||
| Normal | 2025 Final | July 24, 2026 | 2025/26 | Target 2026/27 | |
| Pigeon pea | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| Black matpe | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Mung | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Others | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| TOTAL | 12.4 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 8.4 |
Area in million hectares. Production in million tonnes.
Source: Government of India
Looking further ahead, the amount of soil moisture and winter rains in November and December would decide the fate of key Rabi season pulses – chickpea and lentil as well as urad and mung. The outlook is one of extreme caution at this point of time.
Although India is the world’s pulse epicenter (largest producer, processor, importer, and consumer), the reality of the last four years is discomforting with shrinking planted area, stagnating annual production, continuing low yields and rising imports. This raises a key question: Is India’s new National Pulses Mission a roadmap for achieving self-sufficiency by 2030, or a mirage?
Three overarching challenges (land constraints, water shortage, and climate change) constrain the Indian agriculture sector growth in general, while several legacy issues including smallholder cultivation, limited irrigation, low level of input usage, lack of breakthrough in seed technology, and susceptibility to pest attacks adversely affect pulse crops. Success of the pulses self-sufficiency mission depends entirely on political will to implement strategies. Time will tell.
One thing is certain: India will continue to be in the pulse import market in the foreseeable future. Import volumes and supply sources may vary depending on market conditions.
G. Chandrashekhar is an economist, senior journalist, and policy commentator specializing in global commodity markets. Views are personal. Reach him at gchandrashekhar@gmail.com
