By Gaurav Jain, AgPulse Analytica
November 2026
As the 2026/27 marketing year unfolds, the Australian pulse sector is presenting a sharply divided picture. While the lentil crop is demonstrating remarkable strength and expanding Australia’s footprint on the global stage, Desi chickpeas are facing a more challenging environment.
Here is an overview of the shifting dynamics, target markets, and production drivers shaping Australia’s pulse exports this season.
Desi Chickpeas: Production hurdles and sustained Indian demand
Australia remains the world’s dominant supplier of desi chickpeas, but the upcoming 2026/27 season is confronting significant agronomic headwinds.
Reasons for Lower Production Expectations
The “Australia Risk Factor” is coming to the forefront this season. The primary culprits constraining the desi chickpea crop include notably low soil moisture during the planting and growing period and now rains at the harvest time, which have weighed heavily on acreage decisions, yield potential, and quality.
Australian Chickpea Balance Sheet
| Oct-Sep | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield (tonnes/hectare) | 2.27 | 2.26 | 1.37 |
| Area (thousand hectares) | 1,039 | 1,100 | 772 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 2,354 | 2,486 | 1,056 |
| Beginning Stocks (thousand tonnes) | 238 | 436 | 895 |
| Import (thousand tonnes) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total Supply (thousand tonnes) | 2,593 | 2,923 | 1,952 |
| Export (thousand tonnes) | 2,062 | 1,950 | 1,750 |
| Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) | 95 | 78 | 85 |
| Ending Stock (thousand tonnes) | 436 | 895 | 117 |
Table 1 | Source: AgPulse Analytica Research
Target Markets and Competition
Despite domestic challenges, the demand side of the equation remains highly supportive. India continues to be the most critical target market. Even with India harvesting an estimated 11,000,000 tonnes domestically, strong consumption means the country still requires significant imports to bridge the gap. This structural deficit ensures that whatever desi chickpeas Australia manages to produce and export will find a ready-and-waiting market in South Asia. The combined import demand for desi chickpeas in South Asia is more than 4,000,000 tonnes; however, the restricted supply will make them choose yellow peas as a substitute.
Lentils: Massive supplies and rising global influence
The narrative flips entirely when looking at Australia’s lentil production.
Reasons for the Big Crop
Australia is cementing its rising influence in the global lentil market with another massive harvest. A realistic scenario for the 2026/27 season points to a robust production figure of roughly 2,190,000 tonnes. When combined with a massive carryover of 445,000 tonnes brought into the season, Australia’s total lentil supply is exceptionally heavy. Notably, forecasting bodies like Primary Industries and Regions South Australia (PIRSA) and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) have shown sharply diverging production estimates, but both point toward abundant supplies from regions like South Australia.
Australian Lentils Balance Sheet
| Oct-Sep | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield (tonnes/hectare) | 1.23 | 1.69 | 1.82 |
| Area (thousand hectares) | 1,020 | 1,130 | 1,200 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 1,256 | 1,904 | 2,189 |
| Beginning Stocks (thousand tonnes) | 165 | 285 | 445 |
| Import (thousand tonnes) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Total Supply (thousand tonnes) | 1,422 | 2,190 | 2,634 |
| Export (thousand tonnes) | 1,052 | 1,650 | 1,400 |
| Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) | 85 | 95 | 85 |
| Ending Stock (thousand tonnes) | 285 | 445 | 1,149 |
Table 2 | Source: AgPulse Analytica Research
Target Markets and Price Pressures
With such large volumes available, the primary challenge for the Australian lentil sector in 2026/27 is price management. Heavy domestic supplies have already caused Australian lentil prices to fall, forcing exporters to aggressively seek out global demand. Moving forward, the massive inventory will require Australia to compete vigorously against other origins (like Canada, Russia, and Kazakhstan) in key import markets to draw down its stocks successfully.
Gaurav Jain is the founder and chief analyst at AgPulse Analytica, based in New Delhi. He can be reached at gaurav@agpulse.net
