By Brian Clancey, STAT Publishing
October 2026
Chickpeas
This year’s chickpea harvest has been one of the most frustrating. By the third week of September only 32% had been harvested, while 4% was lost because of an unusually wet and rainy growing season. This is similar to 2019, when rains also delayed the harvest. That year, it was only 37% complete by the same time.
Given a year of wet growing and harvest conditions, any optimism over yields is offset by pessimism over quality.
Statistics Canada thought yields in Saskatchewan could average 1,660 pounds per acre (lbs/ac), compared to 1,618 lbs/ac in Alberta. If proven correct, the harvest would end up at a 400,100 tonne crop from 532,700 acres. Last year’s harvest was 481,600 tonnes from 541,000 acres.
Saskatchewan is more optimistic about yields. Data from crop reporters in that province suggest yields might average 1,673 lbs/ac. By contrast, many processors and exporters think that, at best, yields will reflect the previous five-year average because of damage to standing fields. If they are right, production could be closer to 350,000 tonnes.
Unfortunately, because 236,000 tonnes were carried over this summer, we will have more chickpeas to sell than ever before. Depending on who is more correct about average yields, the gross supply of chickpeas will range between 616,000 and 666,000 tonnes, up from 575,000 last year. Both years include imports of around 30,000 tonnes from the United States, Australia, and India.
Having that many chickpeas available can paint an ugly price outlook, however the scarier part of the story might be quality. Imagine if growing and harvest conditions affected crops like they did last year and in 2019. We could be looking at a quarter of the crop being sample grade and up to 35% Number 3 Canada, with just 40% grading Number 2 Canada or better.
Estimated grade spreads for both the 2024 and 2025 suggest the 2025/26 marketing year started with around 306,000 tonnes of Number 2 and Number 1 Canada chickpeas, 169,000 tonnes of Number 3 Canada, and 67,000 sample grade. There is a good chance we will have less top-grade chickpeas available for the coming marketing year, but more Number 3 and sample grade.
The quantity of Number 2 Canada or better chickpeas could drop to between 258,000 and 281,000 tonnes. By contrast, the quantity of Number 3 Canada may advance to between 206,000 and 220,000 tonnes. However, there is a risk the amount of sample grade on farms could more or less double to between 125,000 and 137,000 tonnes.
On paper there will be enough of each grade to meet the needs of buyers around the world, but there could be big differences in the quantities of each grade harvested from one farm to another and possibly within individual fields. Higher terrain might have suffered less from continued rain than low-lying parts of the field. When this happens, the best strategy might be combining fields with an eye to quality and trying to separate quality fractions when binning.
Unfortunately, this might be easier said than done. As a group, farmers may not have as much flexibility for binning this year’s harvest than was the case last year. The amount of grains, oilseeds, and pulses carried over jumped from 13.6 million tonnes a year ago to 20.455 million this year. The amount of unsold pulses carried over on farms more than tripled from 696,000 to 2.16 million tonnes. The chickpea carryover on farms is small compared to other crops, advancing from 36,000 to 192,000 tonnes.
Adding the carryover to this year’s estimated harvest suggests the gross quantity of grains, oilseeds, and pulses in Western Canada is roughly unchanged from last year at around 99 million tonnes. On its face the numbers suggest there is plenty of bin space, but this year’s harvest is facing quality challenges and storing good and low-quality product separately to maximize income potential could reduce usable bin space.
On the other hand, this challenge also contains opportunities. Separating different qualities may make it possible to take advantage of opportunities as they emerge. Having good representative samples of each bin to put in front of your buyers could result in better average prices, especially if you have a sense of what they need. The more uniform the product in your bins the fewer surprises you should encounter before and after delivering it to your buyers.
Good demand is expected before December because countries like Pakistan are accumulating pulses in advance of Ramadan, which starts in February and ends in March. That country replaced the United States as our most important buyer in both the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years. In both those years, 25% of our chickpea exports went there.
After declining for two years, shipments to the United States were almost 60,000 tonnes last season. A good part of that was demand for offgrade product by the pet food sector. Given this year’s prospective grade spreads, we might be able to repeat that as well as meet the needs of buyers in Pakistan, Turkey, and the European Union as long as exporters can confidently source the qualities needed.
Canadian Chickpea Supply-Demand Estimates
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area (acres) | 297,800 | 221,950 | 233,800 | 315,500 | 480,500 | 541,000 | 532,700 |
| Yield (lbs/ac) | 1,587 | 907 | 1,376 | 1,205 | 1,316 | 1,962 | 1,656 |
| Production (tonnes) | 214,400 | 91,288 | 145,900 | 172,500 | 286,768 | 481,589 | 400,100 |
| Imports (tonnes) | 41,633 | 30,086 | 42,241 | 46,953 | 43,244 | 31,588 | 30,000 |
| Carry-in (tonnes) | 255,000 | 273,000 | 155,000 | 72,000 | 30,000 | 62,000 | 236,000 |
| Stocks (tonnes) | 511,033 | 394,374 | 343,141 | 291,453 | 360,012 | 575,177 | 666,100 |
| Disappearance | |||||||
| August-July Exports (tonnes) | 169,341 | 165,439 | 203,937 | 188,639 | 214,995 | 262,310 | N/A |
| Percent of Forecast | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | N/A |
| Exports (tonnes) | 169,341 | 165,439 | 203,937 | 188,639 | 214,995 | 262,310 | 316,000 |
| Seed (tonnes) | 17,581 | 18,205 | 24,528 | 37,090 | 41,360 | 41,200 | 36,100 |
| Other Domestic (tonnes) | 51,111 | 55,730 | 42,676 | 35,724 | 41,657 | 35,667 | 55,000 |
| Total Usage (tonnes) | 238,033 | 239,374 | 271,141 | 261,453 | 298,012 | 339,177 | 407,100 |
| Ending Stock (tonnes) | 273,000 | 155,000 | 72,000 | 30,000 | 62,000 | 236,000 | 259,000 |
| Stock-Use Ratio | 114.69% | 64.75% | 26.55% | 11.47% | 20.80% | 69.58% | 63.62% |
Forecasts by STAT Market Research based on data from Statistics Canada.
Dry Beans
As picky as chickpea buyers are, dry edible bean packagers and canners are more discerning. As is the case with chickpeas, knowing what you have harvested and keeping good and bad qualities separated will go a long way to making sure you get the best price possible. This is critical because margins are being squeezed across the entire marketing chain. Unexpected increases in the cost of diesel and competition for capital is squeezing profit margins for everyone.
Luckily, dry edible bean markets have been trending higher in recent weeks. This reflects reduced plantings of both black and pinto beans, as well as worries about this year’s yields and quality. This has already been translating into higher bids for coloured beans grown in Saskatchewan.
Prices offered for pinto beans grown in North Dakota are up 23% since the start of the marketing year and roughly double this time last year. Spot bids for black beans in the United States are up 29% since the start of the season. This is an important signal for growers in Saskatchewan as it is rare for beans to set their season highs early in the marketing year. All things being equal, this suggest being patient and knowing what you have to sell are critical to maximizing prices and net returns from growing beans.
What happens in the United States is critical because they set the tone for most classes of beans grown in Saskatchewan, especially pinto and black. Our most important markets for both are Mexico and the United States. The implication is that we follow prices in the United States unless there are fundamental or technical shortages.
Earlier this year, a growing number of pinto bean growers in the United States locked their bins, saying prices were not profitable. This pushed demand to Canada, lifting bids over 40 cents per pound. As rare as that is, it makes it clear that markets rewarded farmers who knew what they have to sell and maintained the quality of beans in their bins.
Similar lessons were taught by last season’s chickpea market. Given this year’s challenges, all those lessons should be remembered and more effort put into matching what you have in your bins with the shifting needs of the processors and exporters with whom you do business.
North American Pulses Situational – September 2026
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AREA (ACRES) | ||||||
| Lentils | 4,629,000 | 4,749,000 | 4,097,000 | 4,638,000 | 4,808,000 | 4,330,000 |
| Peas | 4,868,000 | 4,317,000 | 3,985,000 | 4,234,000 | 4,722,000 | 4,204,000 |
| White Beans | 385,000 | 286,000 | 270,000 | 253,000 | 305,000 | 280,000 |
| Coloured Beans | 1,497,000 | 1,327,000 | 1,332,000 | 1,815,000 | 1,596,000 | 1,304,000 |
| Chickpeas | 590,000 | 591,000 | 684,000 | 990,000 | 1,114,000 | 981,000 |
| TOTAL | 11,969,000 | 11,270,000 | 10,368,000 | 11,930,000 | 12,545,000 | 11,099,000 |
| PRODUCTION (TONNES) | ||||||
| Lentils | 1,751,000 | 2,587,000 | 2,059,000 | 2,854,000 | 3,855,000 | 2,846,000 |
| Peas | 2,661,000 | 4,130,000 | 3,426,000 | 3,795,000 | 4,802,000 | 4,235,000 |
| White Beans | 319,000 | 294,000 | 288,000 | 252,000 | 305,000 | 286,000 |
| Coloured Beans | 1,106,000 | 1,256,000 | 1,228,000 | 1,714,000 | 1,451,000 | 1,204,000 |
| Chickpeas | 220,000 | 313,000 | 370,000 | 548,000 | 820,000 | 679,000 |
| TOTAL | 6,057,000 | 8,580,000 | 7,371,000 | 9,163,000 | 11,233,000 | 9,250,000 |
| CARRYIN (TONNES) | ||||||
| Lentils | 551,000 | 344,000 | 331,000 | 275,000 | 637,000 | 1,370,000 |
| Peas | 779,000 | 479,000 | 718,000 | 414,000 | 619,000 | 1,301,000 |
| White Beans | 175,000 | 187,000 | 144,000 | 87,000 | 63,000 | 71,000 |
| Coloured Beans | 417,000 | 418,000 | 489,000 | 386,000 | 591,000 | 669,000 |
| Chickpeas | 368,000 | 232,000 | 136,000 | 89,000 | 142,000 | 386,000 |
| TOTAL | 2,290,000 | 1,660,000 | 1,818,000 | 1,251,000 | 2,052,000 | 3,797,000 |
| SUPPLY (TONNES) | ||||||
| Lentils | 2,302,000 | 2,931,000 | 2,390,000 | 3,129,000 | 4,492,000 | 4,216,000 |
| Peas | 3,440,000 | 4,609,000 | 4,144,000 | 4,209,000 | 5,421,000 | 5,536,000 |
| White Beans | 494,000 | 481,000 | 432,000 | 339,000 | 368,000 | 357,000 |
| Coloured Beans | 1,523,000 | 1,674,000 | 1,717,000 | 2,100,000 | 2,042,000 | 1,873,000 |
| Chickpeas | 588,000 | 545,000 | 506,000 | 637,000 | 962,000 | 1,065,000 |
| TOTAL | 8,347,000 | 10,240,000 | 9,189,000 | 10,414,000 | 13,285,000 | 13,047,000 |
Based on data from Statistics Canada and United States Department of Agriculture.
Brian Clancey is the Editor and Publisher of www.statpub.com market news website and President of STAT Publishing Ltd. He can be reached at editor@statpub.com.
